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feat(sample-health): per-provider data confidence + aggregate (cherry-pick A) - #732

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feat(sample-health): per-provider data confidence + aggregate (cherry-pick A)#732
Flotapponnier merged 1 commit into
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PR A in the dev → main reconciliation series. Pure additive, zero behavior change on benches without expected_n.

What

First cherry-pick from dev: the sample-health classification system. Bench pages and citable APIs can honestly badge undersized samples instead of crowning a leader drawn from 3 data points (low-cadence benches like perp-funding legitimately publish 3 samples per 24h — flat-n thresholds mis-classify them as broken, an E-E-A-T penalty waiting to happen with Google).

health = sampleSize / expected_n:

  • healthy: >= 0.5
  • low: 0.1–0.5
  • insufficient: < 0.1

Files

  • new: sample-health.ts (classifier + aggregate) + tests + time-constants.ts
  • schema additive: spec-schema.ts gets optional expected_n, types/benchmark.ts gets optional expectedN / dataConfidence / sampleHealth
  • wiring: materialize/load.ts computes per-provider + aggregate; spec.ts passes expected_n through overlay
  • cache bumps: bench-unfiltered v13→v14, all-benchmarks v17→v18

NOT in this PR (follow-ups)

  • UI badge / pill in ledger-table — separate PR
  • API surfacing (citable, stat, openapi.json)
  • citation.ts "insufficient data" silencing
  • YAML expected_n per-bench declarations (content drops, one at a time)

Risk

Zero behavior change on benches without expected_n. The field is optional; classifier returns null; no badge renders; no rankings hidden. Existing prod surfaces unaffected.

…ate (cherry-pick A from dev)

First slice of the dev → main reconciliation. Pure additive: brings
the sample-health classification system from dev so bench pages and
citable APIs can honestly badge undersized samples instead of
crowning a leader drawn from 3 data points.

The motivation: bench pages used to rank providers from sample counts
spanning 3 to tens of thousands without surfacing confidence level,
while the methodology page advertised 'n >= 1000 per provider'. On
low-cadence benches like perp-funding (3 series per venue by design)
that methodology line read as broken — an E-E-A-T penalty waiting to
happen with Google.

A flat threshold mis-classifies legitimately low-cadence benches.
Per-bench expected_n declared in the YAML lets each bench publish
what 'full coverage' looks like; this PR computes
health = sampleSize / expected_n per provider:
  - healthy      ratio >= 0.5
  - low          0.1 <= ratio < 0.5
  - insufficient ratio < 0.1

What's wired in this PR:
- src/lib/sample-health.ts (new): classifyHealth + aggregateConfidence
- src/lib/sample-health.test.ts (new): 11 cases covering edges
- src/lib/time-constants.ts (new): shared MS_PER_* constants
- src/lib/spec-schema.ts: optional expected_n field (additive)
- src/types/benchmark.ts: optional expectedN / dataConfidence /
  sampleHealth fields on Benchmark + ProviderResult (additive)
- src/lib/materialize/load.ts: classifyHealth per result + aggregate
  the bench-wide confidence when spec declares expected_n
- src/lib/spec.ts: overlayEditorial passes through expectedN so a
  YAML edit takes effect before the materialise worker re-snapshots
- Cache keys bumped bench-unfiltered v13 → v14, all-benchmarks v17
  → v18 (regenerate stored snapshots through the new path)

What's deliberately NOT in this PR (follow-ups):
- UI gating in ledger-table.tsx (Low sample pill, hide insufficient
  rows from ranking) — separate PR
- citable / stat / openapi.json API surfacing — separate PR
- citation.ts updates — separate PR
- YAML expected_n declarations on individual benches — content
  follow-ups, one bench at a time

Benches without expected_n behave exactly as before (the field is
optional, the classifier returns null, no badge renders, no behavior
change). Zero risk to existing prod surfaces.
@Flotapponnier
Flotapponnier merged commit 0cee73f into main Jun 26, 2026
1 check failed
Flotapponnier added a commit that referenced this pull request Jun 26, 2026
…emas (PR E) (#739)

PR E in dev → main reconciliation. Minimal-change strategy: main was
already ahead on spec.ts (chain-aliases reconciliation, expectedN
overlay, quorum guard all already cherry-picked). Dev only brings
2 real additions:

spec.ts changes (cosmetic):
- Import MS_PER_MINUTE from @/lib/time-constants
- Replace 30 * 60_000 → 30 * MS_PER_MINUTE (line 50)
- Replace / 60000 → / MS_PER_MINUTE in log fmt (line 61)
- Cache keys bumped bench-unfiltered v14 → v15,
  all-benchmarks v18 → v19 (regenerate stored snapshots through
  the new shape v5 below)
- Everything else preserved: chain-aliases import, bestForChain
  re-export, overlayEditorial canonical-slug reconciliation,
  expectedN passthrough, AllBenchmarksDraftError, quorum guard.

snapshot.ts changes (real upgrade):
- Replace full file with dev's 441-line version
- Was: 323 lines with z.any() loose validation
- Now: strict Zod schemas for ProviderResult / ResultExtras /
  MetricPanel / CellRankEntry / StalenessMeta / RegionPoint
- Adds AssertEqual compile-time guards (4 const checks) that fail
  the build if @/types/benchmark drifts from the Zod schemas
- SnapshotPayload adopts expectedN + dataConfidence (completes
  PR #732 sample-health on the persistence side — sample-health
  fields now survive KV roundtrip)
- snapshotFromBenchmark writes the new fields too
- SCHEMA_VERSION bumped 3 → 5 (covers both branches' versions)
  Old v3 blobs in Upstash KV will safeParse → null → live Prom
  path takes over and rewrites under v5. Graceful degradation
  intact (verified in readSnapshot at line 373).
- Removes 'as ProviderResult[]' casts (Zod now guarantees shape)

Risk: LOW (per second-pass review by reviewer agent).
- No external callers of snapshot.ts (only spec.ts imports it).
- No external constructors of SnapshotPayload (only
  snapshotFromBenchmark builds it).
- One-time cold render per (slug, variant) on first reader after
  deploy. With READ_FROM_STORE=1 the worker snapshots absorb it;
  without, it's a single Prom fan-out per bench.
- No caller signature changes.

Co-authored-by: Florent Tapponnier <contact@mobula.io>
Flotapponnier added a commit that referenced this pull request Jun 26, 2026
…cing (follow-up A) (#741)

Completes PR #732 (sample-health system) by surfacing the computed
dataConfidence/sampleHealth/expectedN to users + machine-readable
consumers. Was dead-code on the data layer until this PR.

UI (ledger-table.tsx):
- Filter rows tagged 'insufficient' out of the sorted ranking.
- 'Low sample' pill on rows with dataConfidence='low' + tooltip
  showing the actual sample-health ratio ('45% of expected').

APIs:
- /api/citable: returns expectedN + dataConfidence per row. When
  bench-wide aggregate is 'insufficient', returns value=null +
  leader=null (refuses to crown a leader from undersized samples).
- /api/stat/[slug]: same treatment + drops 'insufficient' rows
  from the machine-readable ranking array. Per-row sampleHealth +
  dataConfidence exposed for downstream tooling.

Library (citation.ts):
- citationCandidates() drops 'insufficient' rows from the leader
  candidate set.
- fieldValue/leader/headlineSentence return null/'insufficient
  data' when bench-wide is insufficient.
- isInsufficient() helper preserved from main (used by hub cards +
  /api/citable hot path).

Effect: bench pages where YAML declares expected_n now visually
communicate sample confidence; agents/journalists hitting the
citable API can't accidentally quote a leader drawn from 3 data
points; the methodology page's 'n >= 1000' claim becomes honest.

Co-authored-by: Florent Tapponnier <contact@mobula.io>
Flotapponnier added a commit that referenced this pull request Jun 26, 2026
…cing (follow-up A) (#741)

Completes PR #732 (sample-health system) by surfacing the computed
dataConfidence/sampleHealth/expectedN to users + machine-readable
consumers. Was dead-code on the data layer until this PR.

UI (ledger-table.tsx):
- Filter rows tagged 'insufficient' out of the sorted ranking.
- 'Low sample' pill on rows with dataConfidence='low' + tooltip
  showing the actual sample-health ratio ('45% of expected').

APIs:
- /api/citable: returns expectedN + dataConfidence per row. When
  bench-wide aggregate is 'insufficient', returns value=null +
  leader=null (refuses to crown a leader from undersized samples).
- /api/stat/[slug]: same treatment + drops 'insufficient' rows
  from the machine-readable ranking array. Per-row sampleHealth +
  dataConfidence exposed for downstream tooling.

Library (citation.ts):
- citationCandidates() drops 'insufficient' rows from the leader
  candidate set.
- fieldValue/leader/headlineSentence return null/'insufficient
  data' when bench-wide is insufficient.
- isInsufficient() helper preserved from main (used by hub cards +
  /api/citable hot path).

Effect: bench pages where YAML declares expected_n now visually
communicate sample confidence; agents/journalists hitting the
citable API can't accidentally quote a leader drawn from 3 data
points; the methodology page's 'n >= 1000' claim becomes honest.

Co-authored-by: Florent Tapponnier <contact@mobula.io>
Flotapponnier added a commit that referenced this pull request Jun 26, 2026
…cing (follow-up A) (#741)

Completes PR #732 (sample-health system) by surfacing the computed
dataConfidence/sampleHealth/expectedN to users + machine-readable
consumers. Was dead-code on the data layer until this PR.

UI (ledger-table.tsx):
- Filter rows tagged 'insufficient' out of the sorted ranking.
- 'Low sample' pill on rows with dataConfidence='low' + tooltip
  showing the actual sample-health ratio ('45% of expected').

APIs:
- /api/citable: returns expectedN + dataConfidence per row. When
  bench-wide aggregate is 'insufficient', returns value=null +
  leader=null (refuses to crown a leader from undersized samples).
- /api/stat/[slug]: same treatment + drops 'insufficient' rows
  from the machine-readable ranking array. Per-row sampleHealth +
  dataConfidence exposed for downstream tooling.

Library (citation.ts):
- citationCandidates() drops 'insufficient' rows from the leader
  candidate set.
- fieldValue/leader/headlineSentence return null/'insufficient
  data' when bench-wide is insufficient.
- isInsufficient() helper preserved from main (used by hub cards +
  /api/citable hot path).

Effect: bench pages where YAML declares expected_n now visually
communicate sample confidence; agents/journalists hitting the
citable API can't accidentally quote a leader drawn from 3 data
points; the methodology page's 'n >= 1000' claim becomes honest.

Co-authored-by: Florent Tapponnier <contact@mobula.io>
Flotapponnier added a commit that referenced this pull request Jun 26, 2026
* feat(sample-health): wire UI badge + API surface + insufficient silencing (follow-up A) (#741)

Completes PR #732 (sample-health system) by surfacing the computed
dataConfidence/sampleHealth/expectedN to users + machine-readable
consumers. Was dead-code on the data layer until this PR.

UI (ledger-table.tsx):
- Filter rows tagged 'insufficient' out of the sorted ranking.
- 'Low sample' pill on rows with dataConfidence='low' + tooltip
  showing the actual sample-health ratio ('45% of expected').

APIs:
- /api/citable: returns expectedN + dataConfidence per row. When
  bench-wide aggregate is 'insufficient', returns value=null +
  leader=null (refuses to crown a leader from undersized samples).
- /api/stat/[slug]: same treatment + drops 'insufficient' rows
  from the machine-readable ranking array. Per-row sampleHealth +
  dataConfidence exposed for downstream tooling.

Library (citation.ts):
- citationCandidates() drops 'insufficient' rows from the leader
  candidate set.
- fieldValue/leader/headlineSentence return null/'insufficient
  data' when bench-wide is insufficient.
- isInsufficient() helper preserved from main (used by hub cards +
  /api/citable hot path).

Effect: bench pages where YAML declares expected_n now visually
communicate sample confidence; agents/journalists hitting the
citable API can't accidentally quote a leader drawn from 3 data
points; the methodology page's 'n >= 1000' claim becomes honest.

Co-authored-by: Florent Tapponnier <contact@mobula.io>

* feat(seo): /benchmarks/category/[cat] hub pages + BenchmarkGrid lockedCategory (D.2) (#743)

Final cherry-pick from dev-archive — adds 7 new SEO-indexable hub
pages (one per benchmark category) that target long-tail queries
like 'best crypto aggregator benchmarks 2026'.

D.2 was deferred from PR D because the BenchmarkCard ↔ MiniChart ↔
BenchmarkCardData type chain had cascading TS errors. Follow-up A
(citation.ts isInsufficient → InsufficientCheckInput structural
subset) silently fixed those, so this lands cleanly now.

Files:
- src/app/benchmarks/category/[cat]/page.tsx (new) — server route
  that renders BenchmarkGrid pre-filtered to one category + breadcrumb
  + ItemList JSON-LD. generateStaticParams builds the 7 hub routes
  from CATEGORIES. Each page is fully indexable (canonical, OG, etc.).
- src/components/benchmark-grid.tsx (updated) — adds two optional
  props (lockedCategory, allCategories). Backward compatible: when
  unset the grid behaves exactly as before (used on /benchmarks).
  When set (category hub routes), the grid pre-filters and shows the
  full category pill list so users can hop between hubs.

URLs that ship after deploy:
- /benchmarks/category/aggregators
- /benchmarks/category/bridges
- /benchmarks/category/blockchains
- /benchmarks/category/trading
- /benchmarks/category/wallets
- /benchmarks/category/rpcs
- /benchmarks/category/nft-apis

Each renders the canonical bench grid filtered to that category with
its own H1, meta description, and structured data. Sitemap pickup
automatic on next regen.

Co-authored-by: Florent Tapponnier <contact@mobula.io>

* fix(seo): blacklist hex builder slugs and shared composite filter

Drop 15 anonymous 0x... HL builder slugs and 5 dead composite slugs
from /products listing, sitemap and individual /products/<slug> routes.
DEAD_COMPOSITE_SLUGS now lives in providers.ts as the single source of
truth; related-providers.ts imports it. Bumps providers cache key v3->v4.

---------

Co-authored-by: Florent Tapponnier <contact@mobula.io>
Flotapponnier added a commit that referenced this pull request Jun 26, 2026
* feat(sample-health): wire UI badge + API surface + insufficient silencing (follow-up A) (#741)

Completes PR #732 (sample-health system) by surfacing the computed
dataConfidence/sampleHealth/expectedN to users + machine-readable
consumers. Was dead-code on the data layer until this PR.

UI (ledger-table.tsx):
- Filter rows tagged 'insufficient' out of the sorted ranking.
- 'Low sample' pill on rows with dataConfidence='low' + tooltip
  showing the actual sample-health ratio ('45% of expected').

APIs:
- /api/citable: returns expectedN + dataConfidence per row. When
  bench-wide aggregate is 'insufficient', returns value=null +
  leader=null (refuses to crown a leader from undersized samples).
- /api/stat/[slug]: same treatment + drops 'insufficient' rows
  from the machine-readable ranking array. Per-row sampleHealth +
  dataConfidence exposed for downstream tooling.

Library (citation.ts):
- citationCandidates() drops 'insufficient' rows from the leader
  candidate set.
- fieldValue/leader/headlineSentence return null/'insufficient
  data' when bench-wide is insufficient.
- isInsufficient() helper preserved from main (used by hub cards +
  /api/citable hot path).

Effect: bench pages where YAML declares expected_n now visually
communicate sample confidence; agents/journalists hitting the
citable API can't accidentally quote a leader drawn from 3 data
points; the methodology page's 'n >= 1000' claim becomes honest.

Co-authored-by: Florent Tapponnier <contact@mobula.io>

* feat(seo): /benchmarks/category/[cat] hub pages + BenchmarkGrid lockedCategory (D.2) (#743)

Final cherry-pick from dev-archive — adds 7 new SEO-indexable hub
pages (one per benchmark category) that target long-tail queries
like 'best crypto aggregator benchmarks 2026'.

D.2 was deferred from PR D because the BenchmarkCard ↔ MiniChart ↔
BenchmarkCardData type chain had cascading TS errors. Follow-up A
(citation.ts isInsufficient → InsufficientCheckInput structural
subset) silently fixed those, so this lands cleanly now.

Files:
- src/app/benchmarks/category/[cat]/page.tsx (new) — server route
  that renders BenchmarkGrid pre-filtered to one category + breadcrumb
  + ItemList JSON-LD. generateStaticParams builds the 7 hub routes
  from CATEGORIES. Each page is fully indexable (canonical, OG, etc.).
- src/components/benchmark-grid.tsx (updated) — adds two optional
  props (lockedCategory, allCategories). Backward compatible: when
  unset the grid behaves exactly as before (used on /benchmarks).
  When set (category hub routes), the grid pre-filters and shows the
  full category pill list so users can hop between hubs.

URLs that ship after deploy:
- /benchmarks/category/aggregators
- /benchmarks/category/bridges
- /benchmarks/category/blockchains
- /benchmarks/category/trading
- /benchmarks/category/wallets
- /benchmarks/category/rpcs
- /benchmarks/category/nft-apis

Each renders the canonical bench grid filtered to that category with
its own H1, meta description, and structured data. Sitemap pickup
automatic on next regen.

Co-authored-by: Florent Tapponnier <contact@mobula.io>

* fix(seo): drop dead /alternatives links from perp/PM venue footers + dead compare pair

Two SEO regressions feeding 404s into Google's crawl:

1. /products/<slug> for perp/PM venues without an alternatives YAML
   (lighter, manifold, vertex, grvt, ostium, variational, pacifica,
   aevo, edgex, paradex, extended, myriad, limitless, aster) hardcoded
   a /alternatives/<slug> footer link in PmVenueSection and
   PerpVenueSection. Now gated on loadAlternativeSlugs() membership so
   only venues with an actual YAML emit the link.

2. /compare hub rendered jupiter-vs-raydium even though raydium has
   no bench appearances, so /compare/jupiter-vs-raydium 404s
   downstream. Pre-filter COMPARE_PAIRS against getProvider() so dead
   pairs disappear from the list and the JSON-LD ItemList until both
   sides resolve.

Plus a defensive guard in buildAlternativesReverseMap() so the
emitted alt.slug is always a known live YAML, even if the alt list
source ever changes shape.

---------

Co-authored-by: Florent Tapponnier <contact@mobula.io>
@Flotapponnier
Flotapponnier deleted the chore/cherry-sample-health-system branch July 17, 2026 14:41
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